Monday, October 25, 2004

Presidential Election - Update 1

In my last post, I presented assumptions behind a simulation-based model for predicting the outcome of the presidential election and some preliminary results. Here is the update using data as of 11:07 AM, October 25:

SCENARIOKerry electoral votesKerry win probability
Undecided voters split between
Kerry and Bush
Undecided voters favor Kerry 3:227966.48
Undecided voters favor Kerry 2:129285.52

Scroll down for a graph showing the projected distribution of Kerry's electoral votes for the scenario where undecided voters favor Kerry 3:2. The blue bars denote the outcomes corresponding to a Kerry victory. I am going with this scenario as my "bottom-line" prediction.

For the detail-oriented, here is a link that provides an analysis of past elections suggesting that undecided voters tend to favor the challenger .

I will keep updating the table and the figures on a daily basis, time permitting.

Until then, 10-4.


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