Friday, October 29, 2004

Presidential Election - Update 3

I am continuing to use the average of polls for the 18 battleground states from the last week or so as reported by RealClear Politics. I believe this makes the analysis more robust than relying on just the latest poll results.

Here is the latest update to my simulation-based predictions of the presidential election outcome using data as of 12:05 AM, October 29.

SCENARIOKerry electoral votesKerry win probability
Undecided voters split between
Kerry and Bush
Undecided voters favor Kerry 3:227559.16
Undecided voters favor Kerry 2:1286

Scroll down for a graph showing the projected distribution of Kerry's electoral votes for the scenario where undecided voters favor Kerry 3:2. The blue bars denote the outcomes corresponding to a Kerry victory. As in my previous post, I am going with this scenario as my "bottom-line" prediction.

Details of the model and other assumptions can be found in my Oct 21 post titled "Presidential Election" - accessible from the "Previous Posts" menu on the right.

I will update this table with my final prediction on Monday (11/01).

Until then, 10-4.


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