Thursday, March 06, 2008

Back from Hibernation

Hello y'all!

My last post was some 3 1/2 years ago - the day before the 2004 presidential elections. Needless to say, I got burnt by my assumption that undecided voters would go for Kerry by a 2:1 margin. Before going to press, I had run a simulation where the undecided vote was equally split - with the result that Bush was going to win with a 279-261 margin. Hindsight being 20:20, I wish I had picked this scenario as my "most likely prediction". C'est la vie.

Here we are in 2008, with yet another presidential election upon us. As we wait for the Democratic party's nomination process to sort itself out, Survey USA has come out with a 50-state poll pitting McCain against Obama as well as McCain against Clinton. In the next days and months, I will be updating my model for the 2008 elections beginning with the SUSA polling data.

Until then, 10-4.


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