Presidential Election  Update 3
I am continuing to use the average of polls for the 18 battleground states from the last week or so as reported by RealClear Politics. I believe this makes the analysis more robust than relying on just the latest poll results.
Here is the latest update to my simulationbased predictions of the presidential election outcome using data as of 12:05 AM, October 29.
SCENARIO  Kerry electoral votes  Kerry win probability 
Undecided voters split between
Kerry and Bush  259  29.03

Undecided voters favor Kerry 3:2  275  59.16 
Undecided voters favor Kerry 2:1  286
 77.58

Scroll down for a graph showing the projected distribution of Kerry's electoral votes for the scenario where undecided voters favor Kerry 3:2. The blue bars denote the outcomes corresponding to a Kerry victory. As in my previous post, I am going with this scenario as my "bottomline" prediction.
Details of the model and other assumptions can be found in my Oct 21 post titled "Presidential Election"  accessible from the "Previous Posts" menu on the right.
I will update this table with my final prediction on Monday (11/01).
Until then, 104.